By Axel Bugge
LISBON (Reuters) - The Portuguese could
reelect their center-right government in a general election on Sunday,
although it may fall short of winning an absolute majority, bringing
less political stability after years of austerity and hardship under a
debt crisis.
The election is the first since the Iberian country
of 10 million exited a bailout last year. Yet, despite deep spending
cuts and the biggest tax hikes in living memory, polls indicate the
Portuguese will stick with the government that guided them through the
crisis and exited the bailout by international lenders.
The
latest polls, released on Friday, gave Prime Minister Pedro Passos
Coelho's ruling coalition a lead of between five and 12 points over
center-left Socialist opponent Antonio Costa.
But if Passos
Coelho fails to pick up more than the around 38 percent that he has
polled in recent days, he will fall short of an absolute majority in the
230-seat parliament, leading to a potentially unstable minority
government. In the 2011 election his coalition won 50 percent of the
vote, ensuring a majority.
There was no campaigning on Saturday
nor statements by the candidates, in keeping with a law which sets aside
the day before elections as a day of reflection.
Costa had about
33 percent support in the latest polls, making his chances of winning
slimmer even though some analysts do not rule out a last-minute upset
for either side.
Uncertainty about the outcome is higher still
because up to 15 percent of voters are still undecided and there could
be a very high abstention rate.
Adelino Maltez, a political
analyst at the Lisbon Technical University, said "there is a possibility
of confusion on Sunday night," if there is a very close result that
gives no strong victory to any side.
If there is a close outcome,
it could make the process of creating a stable government difficult,
potentially upsetting the consolidation of the country's return to
growth after the pain of the debt crisis that led to a three
year-recession.
The economy started growing again last year and
growth is accelerating this year. Passos Coelho says that only with his
stable government can the economy pick up more momentum and investment
thanks to widening confidence.
Costa, the former mayor of Lisbon,
has promised to ease back on austerity and deliver more disposable
income back to families. He urged everyone to vote.
"It is
fundamental that every one of us does not waste the opportunity to
finally, after four years, use our vote to change the government," Costa
said at his last campaign event.
But polls have swung in the
government's favor in the last few weeks despite Costa's relentless
attacks on the unpopular austerity introduced by the government in the
past few years.
A victory for the center-right government goes
against the trend seen in other southern European countries, like Spain
and Greece, which have tended to punish austerity-minded governments in
the past few years.
Still, even if Costa loses, the political hue
of the country could switch to the left as the government may win but
parliament could have a majority of leftwing members if Socialists and
other, smaller leftist parties are included. That could make it hard for
a minority center-right government to pass policies.
Minority
government has a dismal history in Portugal. None has survived through
its full term since the country returned to democracy in 1974. The last
Socialist minority government collapsed in 2011 after having to request
the bailout.
